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 [转帖]四年前的一篇文章： 对“印度超越中国论”的思考 |
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印度人为什么不服中国？ -- tutu - (0 Byte) 2008-2-22 周五, 21:40 (551 reads) |
parisparis
头衔: 海归少将
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2004/09/04
文章: 1996
海归分: 276207
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作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
1.Income disparity is much larger than in China.
With a similar size of population, the national private consumption for India is 0.65 trillion dollars. For China, the number is 1t (US 9.5t).
2.India's manufacturing industries did not benefit from US outsourcing as much as China did.
US outsourced many tech-related support function and some research to India, but India's manufacturing base did not experience the tremendous growth that China had in the last 7 years.
Keep in mind, it is the manufacturing sector that will create most jobs for low-skilled people and lift the boat for average Joes.
3.Big bubble in stock market, but huge trade deficit with an appreciating currency (6% of national GDP already). Very vulnerable to external financial shock.
4.A democratic political system, but highly corrupted: that's why even today, you can not drink clean water there since the politicians give tons of bullshit and never deliver in terms of solid infrastructure for the last 4 decades.
It is a promising nation with superior high education. Educated elites are smart, very confident and fluent in English. But its high growth will be easily derailed when an external shock comes.
And I believe it is coming soon.
BTW, India is and will be China's potential competitor. British left a geopolitical mess there to ensure that Pakistan will check and balance India and India will contain China.
Psychologically, Indians are still slaves to their British and American masters.
作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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