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ILoveNewYork
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加入时间: 2007/01/17
文章: 13
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作者：ILoveNewYork 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Northern Exposure
By GORDON G. CHANG
February 7, 2007; Page A14
Tomorrow, China-sponsored six-party talks to disarm North Korea are
scheduled to resume in Beijing. This time, there are great expectations
that an agreement will be reached. But if there is a deal, it will not be
because Chinese diplomats worked behind the scenes. It will be because the
Bush administration has made concessions it previously refused to consider
-- in particular, releasing frozen North Korean funds, providing aid, and
accepting only an interim freeze of the North's production of plutonium.
American policy makers apparently think that if the U.S. makes the first
moves, China will persuade North Korea in the future to completely give up
its nuclear arsenal.
China supplies approximately 90% of the North's oil, 80% of its consumer
goods and 45% of its food. It accounts for more than half of Pyongyang's
foreign trade, and is the only nation that pledges to defend Kim Jong Il's
state with military force. Some North Korean officials are thought to be
more loyal to the Chinese leadership than to Kim Jong Il. The little
autocrat could "neither bark nor bite" without China's assistance. Beijing
can disarm him but has chosen not to exercise its influence.
China's failure to act leads analysts to believe that Beijing keeps the
Kimist regime afloat to preserve regional peace, avoid a tide of refugees,
maintain a buffer against American forces in South Korea, destabilize
Japan and obtain leverage over Washington. Beijing seeks these advantages,
but they barely explain recent Chinese policy. Kim Jong Il is the
destabilizing force in North Asia, and Korean refugees would move south in
a crisis and not north. A unified Korea in Beijing's orbit would serve as
a superior buffer, and it is Kim Jong Il who is pushing Japan to rearm and
build missile defenses. And Korean issues are beginning to cloud China's
relations with America. On balance, North Korea is a growing liability for
Beijing as it tars its international standing.
There are two primary reasons why the Chinese haven't solved the Korean
crisis. First, China is in the middle of a once-in-a-lifetime transition.
Mao Zedong was once the world's arch-proliferator of nuclear weapons
technologies. Many in Beijing now realize that the further nuclearization
of the region will only result in the reduction of China's relative power.
It is not just the potential armament of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan
that concerns the Chinese. The nuclear agreement between India and the
U.S. -- the world's largest democracy and its most powerful one --
foreshadows a setback of immense proportions for China.
Despite Beijing's recognition that proliferation no longer benefits China
in the long term, there is now no accepted strategic vision in the Chinese
capital, just competing views and interests that result in directionless
policy -- what many mistake as "nuanced" diplomacy. There may be academics
and Foreign Ministry officials who want to take constructive steps, but
there are also generals who enjoy bedeviling Americans and who maintain
close ties with their North Korean counterparts.
The most recent evidence of Beijing's indecisiveness is its flip on the
inspection of goods moving in and out of North Korea. On Oct. 14 of last
year, Wang Guangya, China's U.N. ambassador, voted in favor of U.N.
Security Council Resolution 1718, which calls on nations to inspect such
goods. Immediately after the vote, he declared that the inspection
provision was unacceptable to China. Then, two days later he said that
China would inspect North Korean cargoes after all, but would not
intercept or interdict them. This erratic performance is a sign of a
government that does not know what to think or do, even on matters of
importance.
More generally, Chinese foreign policy has not evolved to the point where
Beijing is disposed, by itself, to openly interfere in the affairs of a
neighbor in a drastic manner. China's officials still speak of the Five
Principles of Peaceful Coexistence -- all of which boil down to
noninterference in others' internal affairs -- as the bedrock of their
foreign policy. China must complete the process of both shedding the
self-image of an outsider and ending its traditional role as an adversary
of the existing global order. Such a change inevitably occurs when a
rising power matures, but it only happens after internal perceptions have
shifted over time. The fundamental problem is that China is just not quite
ready to act like a great power.
Second, China has priorities that it perceives to be more important -- or
at least more immediate. North Korea was pushed to the top of Beijing's
agenda only by an unexpected event: Pyongyang's October 2002 admission to
an American envoy that it had been pursuing a uranium-weapons program in
violation of its existing agreements. Up until then, Chinese leaders were
preoccupied by domestic matters. To the extent they were concerned by
international ones, they were focused on China's western and southern
borders. Today, other matters -- such as securing energy -- are deemed far
more urgent than Korea.
China will not disarm North Korea on its own. Beijing has been able to
protect Pyongyang because Seoul is doing the same. Stripping Seoul from
Beijing should be Washington's most immediate tactical goal. If Washington
can help South Korea reverse course -- certainly possible in light of the
conservative trend in that nation -- the Chinese will be alone in their
support of Pyongyang and will therefore have to take a clear stand. They
will have to choose between their future, cooperation with the U.S., and
their past, the alliance with North Korea. America can help the Chinese
break the deadlock inside their capital and complete their nation's
historic transition.
Mr. Chang is the author of "Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the
World" (Random House, 2006).
URL for this article:
https://online.wsj.com/article/SB117082079953500538.html
作者：ILoveNewYork 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 Northern Exposure -- ILoveNewYork - (6175 Byte) 2007-2-09 周五, 12:01 (1166 reads)
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