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 蛋定，要蛋定。顺便批斗虫子和阿修，大家抄家伙上吧。我现在去开会，回来再下毒手。 |
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agreed on some part. but Germany and France will be ok -- nflfan2007 - (64 Byte) 2010-2-05 周五, 14:41 (502 reads) |
parisparis
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作者：parisparis 在 青蛙园地 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
1. Austria lent agressively to Eastern Europe. In Q4, 2008, the Lehman-induced global capital reflow back to USD results in a total collapse in the Eastern Europe. Austrian banks' problem have been covered up in the media.
Austrian banking crisis ignited the WWII and resulted in the German crash.
As Rumsfield said: there is known unknown, but there is lots of unknown unknown.... Remember butterfly theory?
2. If PIGs need to drop out, there will be a period of introduction of new currencies, as well as banking system switch. People will want to keep their Greek/Spain/Italian Euros into German Euros. There will be massive capital flows into and out of the core nations.
The breakup of Euroland is really unimaginable process and ALL CORE NATIONS will experience dramatic increase in currency circulation and then dramatic decrease in currency circulation.
That will be THEIR MOST VULNERABLE PERIOD and Americans will not give them an easy breathe, unless Euro becomes a totally nonconvertible currency--which naturally will hit its reserve currency status.
3. Big unkown--keep in mind, many mid-east oil money is now in Euro. If they panic and withdrew, there will be huge capital outflow--very bad.
How about China too?
When a nation lost its status as the global reserve currency printer, the declining stage could be extremely miserable. Britons have lots to say in this field... I guess.
作者：parisparis 在 青蛙园地 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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