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 [新闻] 英国<经济学家>杂志: 中国经济2019年超过美国 |
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jihadist
头衔: 海归上尉
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加入时间: 2009/07/11
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作者：jihadist 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
哈哈, 这是 fanboy 们喜欢的话题, the Economist 还提供了一个interactive chart，你可以自己预测。链接在这儿，
https://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/12/save_date
不过这是daily chart， 明天就没了， 所以我把它的文字贴在下面。
Save the date
Dec 16th 2010, 12:31 by P.W. and D.H.
We invite you to predict when China will overtake America
CHINA jumped ahead of Japan in 2010 to become the world’s second-biggest economy, but when will it grab the number-one slot? The Economist’s interactive chart allows you to make your own predictions. The relative paths of GDP in dollar terms in China and America depend not only on real growth rates but also on inflation and the yuan’s exchange rate against the dollar. Over the past decade real GDP growth averaged 10.5% a year in China and 1.7% in America; inflation averaged 3.8% and 2.2% respectively. Since Beijing scrapped its dollar peg in 2005, the yuan has risen by an annual average of 4.2%. Our best guess for the next decade is that annual real GDP growth averages 7.75% in China and 2.5% in America, inflation rates average 4% and 1.5%, and the yuan appreciates by 3% a year. Plug in these numbers and China will overtake America in 2019. But if China’s real growth rate slows to an annual average of only 5%, then (leaving the other assumptions unchanged) China would become number one in 2022. Please place your own bets.
作者：jihadist 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [新闻] 英国<经济学家>杂志: 中国经济2019年超过美国 -- jihadist - (1341 Byte) 2010-12-21 周二, 16:25 (2228 reads)
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