| 作者 |
 [分享]MarketWatch 专栏作家赫伯特 Mark Hulbert 称: 美国股市在六个月内将会大升 信不信由你，反正我 |
 |
not_a_CTA
头衔: 海归准将
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2005/07/03
文章: 600
海归分: 133607
|
|
|
作者：not_a_CTA 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
信不信由你，反正我只是与大家“分享”这个信息。
“股市有风险 入市需谨慎"
美股评论:股市未来半年或将大涨
2011年09月02日
https://forex.jrj.com.cn/2011/09/02000010937011.shtml
以下即赫伯特的评论文章全文：在劳工节长周末到来之时，这里恰好有些好消息可以提供给我们的投资者。
华尔街最受推崇的分析师之一宣布，他估计股市在未来六个月当中的回报率将达到18%。如果这预言正确的话，就意味着到明年2月，道琼斯工业平均指数将上涨到1万3600点左右，而标准普尔500指数也将越过1420点的水位。
这位分析师不是别人，正是艾森斯塔特(Sam Eisenstadt)，Value Line的前研究主管。在2009年下半年退休之前，艾森斯塔特为这家公司整整服务了六十三年。《赫伯特金融摘要》汇编的数据显示，艾森斯塔特在任期间，该公司的旗舰通讯Value Line Investment Survey三十年间计入风险因素的整体表现排名全部投资通讯之首。
尽管已经退休，已经是其他人早就远离市场每天行情波动的年纪，艾森斯塔特却仍然和过去一样，就像一个初入股市的新手那样，随时随地密切关注着市场的变化。
他最常做的事情之一就是监视着自己那个复杂的计量经济学模型，后者可以对市场未来六个月的走势作出预测。这一模型预测的基础是每月的各种不同经济及金融变量，其历史可以追溯到六十年前的1952年。尽管艾森斯塔特也一再强调，世界上没有任何一个模型是完美无缺的，但是这一模型过去六十年的表现确实非常出色，出色到统计学家可以相信其威力的程度。
我在这里也曾经不止一次撰文谈到艾森斯塔特的预测，而在这些预测当中，大多数都应该说是相当不错的。
2009年12月，艾森斯塔特预测2010年的股市回报率将达到20%，而事实上，威尔夏5000指数那一年计入股息的回报率为17.2%。
2010年12月，艾森斯塔特预测2011年上半年的股市回报率将达到11.9%，而事实上，威尔夏5000指数的整体回巴黎为6.1%。
今年7月，艾森斯塔特的模型预测今年下半年的股市回报率将达到5.7%。尽管现在到全年结束还有四个月的时间，但是股市从他做出预言之后确实是下跌了8%??不过无论怎样，现在就下结论还为时过早。
在本周早些时候的一封邮件当中，艾森斯塔特表示，他的模型还在继续发出着看涨的信号，预计未来六个月当中，股市的整体回报率将达到18%。
连艾森斯塔特自己也承认，这样的回报数字“听起来太美妙，让人怀疑是否真实”。
不过他又补充道，在多年的生涯当中，他已经学会“不要去质疑(模型给出的)数字，也不要去试图为其找理由”。
本周早些时候，我曾经根据股市当前的情绪面状况进行分析，得出了看涨的结论，而艾森斯塔特的模型，其看法显然和我是一致的。
不过，一些读者可能会怀疑，难道9月不是股市史上最可怕的月份之一吗？在这样的时候，真的能够指望那太过美妙的数字吗？可是，我们必须明白，哪怕今年9月确实会重复历史的轨迹，成为一个令人失望的月份，距离艾森斯塔特的预言兑现也还有五个月的时间。
我们当然希望这预言能够变成现实。(玉祥)
Dow 13,600, here we come
Commentary: Sam Eisenstadt is projecting a powerful rally
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Sept. 2, 2011, 10:57 a.m. EDT
An earlier version of this column incorrectly reported the r-squared data point.
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Here’s some cheery news to usher investors into the long Labor Day weekend:
One of Wall Street’s most eminent analysts is forecasting an 18% return for the stock market over the next six months. If he’s right, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) will be trading around 13,600 by next February, and the S&P 500 index (SNC:SPX) will be above 1,420.
The analyst is none other than Sam Eisenstadt, the former research director at Value Line. Prior to his retirement in late 2009, Eisenstadt had spent 63 years at that firm. At the time, its flagship publication, the Value Line Investment Survey, was in first place for risk-adjusted performance over the three decades the Hulbert Financial Digest had been tracking advisory performance.
Though in retirement, and well past the age when most others have long since given up following the market’s daily gyrations, Eisenstadt remains as close a student of the stock market as ever.
One of his areas of focus is a complex econometric model that forecasts where the market will be in six months’ time. The inputs to his model are monthly readings of numerous economic and financial variables over the last six decades — back to 1952, in fact. While Eisenstadt stresses that no model is perfect, he reports that the model’s track record over the last six decades have been statistically quite significant.
(For the statistically minded among you, he reports an r-squared of 0.45 for its six-month forecasts since 1990.)
During the time that I have been reporting Eisenstadt’s forecasts on this website, they have for the most part acquitted themselves quite well:
•In December 2009, Eisenstadt forecasted a 20% return for calendar 2010. The Wilshire 5000 actually gained 17.2% for the year, after dividends. Not bad.
•In December 2010, Eisenstadt forecast an 11.9% return for the first half of 2011. The actual return of the Wilshire 5000 total-return index: 6.1%. Again, not bad.
•This past July, I reported that Eisenstadt’s model was forecasting a 5.7% return through the end of the year. Though four months remain in that forecast, the market since then has fallen 8%. The best you can say in this case is that the jury is still out.
In an email earlier this week, Eisenstadt reported that his model his sticking to its bullish guns — forecasting an 18% return over the next six months.
Eisenstadt conceded that such a return “sounds too good to be true.”
But, he added, he’s learned over the years “not to question the numbers [produced by his model] nor attempt to rationalize them.”
Eisenstadt’s forecast is consistent with the bullish conclusion I reported earlier this week from a contrarian analysis of advisory sentiment. ( Read my. Aug. 30 column. )
You might wonder, however, how his forecast can be squared with September’s reputation as being bad for the stock market. ( Read my Aug. 31 column. ) Note carefully, however, that even if this coming month turns out to be a disappointing one for equities, there will remain five more months after September for the market to live up to Eisenstadt’s forecast.
We can only hope that it’s on target.
https://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=DF59AB64-D4FF-11E0-947A-00212803FAD6
作者：not_a_CTA 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
-
 [分享]MarketWatch 专栏作家赫伯特 Mark Hulbert 称: 美国股市在六个月内将会大升 信不信由你，反正我 -- not_a_CTA - (5133 Byte) 2011-9-06 周二, 01:16 (2791 reads)
|
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件可以下载文件, |
|
|
