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 热门话题：上海房地产市场报告(ZT) |
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Average Joe
头衔: 海归少尉
加入时间: 2004/12/15
文章: 26
海归分: 3521
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作者：Average Joe 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
With its explosive growth, Shanghai has become one of China’s hottest property markets. Shanghai property development got off to an early start in the early 1990s. However, as the Asian Financial Crisis set in and growth slowed in the mid-90s, city planners faced a property bubble in the commercial sector. The resulting sag in the property market was short-lived, however, as the local and regional economies of East China shifted into high gear between 2001-2003, resulting in explosive growth in the commercial and residential property sectors.
This reports may interest to any U.S. firms that relates to architecture/construction/building materials.
I. Status of Social and Economic Development of Shanghai
1. Economic status:
Shanghai is one of the four cities under direct leadership of the State Council. In recent years, all economic indices of the City have ranked at the top two throughout the country. Total population of the City about 16 millions accounts for 1% of that of the country. Shanghai’s land area takes up 0.06% of the country’s total. Shanghai accounts for approximately 12% of the country’s financial revenue and 25% of the country’s total volume of imports and exports. As the financial heart of China, Shanghai is also fast becoming a center of service and other non-industrial enterprise. GDP growth for the city was approximately 19% in 2003, well above the national growth rate of 9%.
With its explosive growth, Shanghai has become one of China’s hottest property markets. Shanghai property development got off to an early start in the early 1990s. However, as the Asian Financial Crisis set in and growth slowed in the mid-90s, city planners faced a property bubble in the commercial sector. The resulting sag in the property market was short-lived, however, as the local and regional economies of East China shifted into high gear between 2001-2003, resulting in explosive growth in the commercial and residential property sectors.
With real estate prices at an all-time high (up 15-30% from last year for Grade A commercial and residential properties), there has been much speculation about a second property bubble on the horizon. This has prompted local planners to slow down project approvals and put restrictions on lending to developers. Initially prices have jumped with the perception of restricted supply, however, as would-be property buyers take a wait and see approach, the growth in Shanghai’s property market as a whole has slowed considerably in recent months.
The following report represents an over-view of the city’s property situation, taken from various reports provided by local market research firms in Shanghai. Most analysts note Shanghai's hosting of the 2010 World Expo and the vast infrastructure investments that are planned between now and then as a major driver in the property market.
2. Basic conditions of the City
· Area of the administrative region of Shanghai
By 2003, area of entire Shanghai is 6,340.5 square kilometers, which accounts for 0.06% of the total area throughout the country, including 5,299.29 square kilometers for the area of districts, and 1,041.21 square kilometers for the area of counties.
Distribution of the area in all districts:
Huangpu 0.20%
Minhang0.85%
Hongkou 0.37%
Jiading 7.24%
Luwan 0.13%
Songjiang9.55%
Qingpu 0.65%
Xuhui 0.86%
Jinshan9.24%
Jingan 0.12%
Pudong 8.24%
Zhabei 0.45%
Fengxian 0.84%
Yangpu 0.82%
Baoshan0.7%
Changning 0.6%
Nanhui 10.85%
Putuo 0.86%
Chongming16.42%
· Total quantity and distribution of the population of Shanghai.
By the end of 2002, the registered population for the city is 13,342,300, which takes up 1% of the national population.
Huangpu 4.81%
Minhang5.23%
Hongkou6.00%
Jiading 3.77%
Luwan2.56%
Songjiang3.76%
Qingpu 3.44%
Xuhui 6.61%
Jinshan 3.97%
Jingan 2.56%
Pudong 12.83%
Zhabei 5.32%
Fengxian3.80%
Yangpu 8.10%
Baoshan6.28%
Changning4.58%
Nanhui 5.20%
Putuo 6.33%
Chongming4.84%
II. Total sale volume of real estate in Shanghai
1. Residential buildings:
In 2003, the sales area of new commodity houses in Shanghai has exceeded 20 million square meters. In 2002, the area of the sale of new commodity houses was 19,606,000 square meters at an annual growth rate of 10.9%, including personal purchase of commodity houses of 18,628,400 square meters, which accounts for 95% of the total area sold. The real estate market in Shanghai has maintained a growth rate of over 10% for 3 successive years.
Tendency of the sales area of residential houses (x million square meters)
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
6.86 11.51 13.29 13.97 17.67 19.61
2. Commercial Buildings:
The area of new shops in Shanghai in 2003 grew by 71% in comparison with the previous year, with a constructed area of 4.72 million square meters. It is estimated that the area for the entire year will exceed 5 million square meters.
III. Demand and supply of the real estate in Shanghai
In 2003, the real estate market in Shanghai has generally shown the status of minor excess of supply to the demand, and the surplus is 799,800 square meters.
By the end of 2002, the residential area per person in urban area of Shanghai reaches 13.1 square meters, but the residential area per person among middle and low-income families is less than 5 square meters; compared with the residential area per person of 35 square meters in developed nations, the potential for the demand of houses is significant.
IV. Price structure of the real estate industry in Shanghai
2000-2002, the price of houses in Shanghai has been growing, and the rate of growth is accelerating on an annual basis.
The growth rate in 2000 was 4.5％, 7.8％ in 2001 and 13.2％ in 2002. With the influence of multiple municipal investments, like the successful bidding of the World Expo, etc. in 2003, the housing prices grow by a large margin, the growth rate throughout the year is over 20%.
Price Structure
< RMB3000/sqm 16.3%
RMB3000-5000/sqm 49.6%
RMB3000-7000/sqm 21.8%
> RMB7000 sqm 12.3%
V. Corporate ownership and qualification of real estate developers
1. Corporate Ownership:
Currently Shanghai has over 4,000 real estate development enterprises (only 13 listed corporations among them), in which private-run enterprise accounts for 27.5%, foreign-invested enterprise accounts for 17.9%, and state-owned and stockholding enterprise account for 54.6%.
Foreign Invested Enterprise 17.9%
Private Enterprise 27.5%
State owned Enterprise 54.6%
2. Corporate Qualification:
In Shanghai, there are about 3,000 small enterprises whose registration capital is 5 million-10 million Yuan, and whose development qualification is Level 3 or whose development qualification is not defined, which account for60%～70% of the total amount of real estate development enterprises, Level 2 development enterprise accounts for 20%, and Level 1 accounts for 10%.
Currently, private capital, and foreign capital enters into the real estate market of Shanghai, which has not only generated the change in capital structure, but also promoted gradual sub-division and continued prioritization of the operation mechanism of the real estate market.
VII. Composition of customer groups
Personal purchase of houses has already become a major part of market consumption. In 2003, personal purchase of houses reached 96% in real estate market in Shanghai.
Non-Shanghai residents have been a significant influence on the housing market. Many of these purhcases are intended for investment purposes rather than live-in housing.
As a result, many developers have rushed into high-end housing markets to capitalize on this investment trend.
However, responding to complaints by local Shanghai residents, in recent months the Shanghai Government has emphasized the development of low-income housing in order to keep housing affordable for the live-in home buyer.
VIII. Manner of payment:
Residents of Shanghai favor installment, and they account for 60% of all purchases. Such ratio is slightly lower than Beijing and Chongqing. The selection of the manner of payment is directly influenced by the status of income, consumption idea and total purchasing price, etc. of the residents of Shanghai.
IX. Market trend:
In 2004, Shanghai Municipal Construction Committee will invest 20 billion Yuan in the improvement of road and subway networks, which will bring about new influence to the development of the price and functional configuration of real estate in the future.
In addition, Shanghai will hold World Expo in 2010. To this end, Shanghai has promulgated in “Comprehensive Development Plan for both Banks of Huangpu River” that includes the planned site of the World Expo. As estimated, the initial investment in the development plan for Huangpu River will reach over 100 billion Yuan. This plan will generate major influence on current and future development of the real estate industry in Shanghai as well as provide certain development space.
The Commercial Service encourages American suppliers of building materials and construction related products and services to contact us for more information about selling into this market.
Scott Yao
Commercial Specialist
Commercial Service, U.S. Consulate Shanghai
Tel: 8621-6279 7630 ext. 6240
Fax: 8621-6279 7639
Email: [email protected]
作者：Average Joe 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 热门话题：上海房地产市场报告(ZT) -- Average Joe - (9593 Byte) 2005-1-15 周六, 12:42 (1210 reads)
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