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 [转帖]授人以渔-TA(1) |
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theoretical
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作者：theoretical 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
这是位前辈写的，我慢慢转，转图排版很费劲。大家有兴趣就说一声。觉得无聊，我就不往下搬了。Now, it starts:
首先，我必须说明我的一个基本观点 only chart tells the truth，特别是weekly和monthly chart。
不客气地说，我还没有听说过哪个散户能靠分析基本面做好trading的，除非你是insider。
TK 说的好，那些CNBC Yahoo news 除了心理战以外没有啥用处。
当你知道这些消息的时候，either too late or 你可能给出错误的解读。
所以，那些认为TA无用的朋友，
我可以用很多人的，包括我自己的经历，来告诉你，
You are deadly wrong，
TA worked tens of years ago，
TA works now
TA will also work tens of years later。
How to identify a market bottom
To catch a bottom is the second most difficult thing in the market. (to call the exact top might be even tougher)
However still there are a lot of information we can use to greatly increase the chance.
1, market valuation
2, investor sentiment
3, market breadth (oversold indicator)
4, market cycle
5, chart pattern
6, market capitulation
Now I will try to go through them one by one.
1, Market Valuation
Talk about market valuation, I bet most of you will think of P/E ratio first.
Actually a proper market valuation is accomplished by considering both earnings and earnings growth using a formal Discounted Cash Flow Model.
The reasonable market P/E ratio can be widely affected by inflation rate, growth rate and etc, therefore should NOT be judged by simply saying 15 is fair, 10 is undervalue, 20 is overvalue. But can P/E ratio be used to time the market? The answer is yes, I believe some investors already started to use moving average divergence of P/E to time the market in a long-term basis
There is a very good intro about P/E for someone interested.
https://www.investopedia.com/university/peratio/
Apparently, some famous investors are reported to buy into the weak these days. But are these stocks really cheap now?
One way to answer the question is Morningstar's market valuation graph, which gives the ratio of price to fair value for the median stock in each coverage universe over time. A ratio below 1.00 indicates that the stock's price is lower than the estimate of its fair value.
As you can see, the market bottomed (mid-term and long-term) @ around 0.80 during the last bear market. What is the reading now? 0.76, ALL TIME LOW since they started to collect the data !
T-Bill Yield VS SP 500 Dividend Yield
The dividend yield is one of the oldest and most respected measures of the stock market's value.
As the dividend return on stocks decreases they become less attractive or more overvalued.
This indicator calculates the dividend rate of return relative to fixed income investments because they both compete for investors seeking a consistent nominal return
Historically, when the ratio crosses above 2.1 it has been a noteworthy warning that the market was vulnerable to a correction.
When this indicator has been below 1.8 the market has demonstrated a significant upward bias
Before I jumped into the next sector, I wanna clarify one thing.
There are a lot of people overlook the deep of 00-03 bear market and think it is not comparable to previous ones.
Okay, let me say it this way (percentages are based on SP500)
73-75 bear market had a 50% correction for 2 years
83-85 bear market had a 30% correction for less than 2 years.
87-88 crush had a 30% correction for less than 1 years
00-03 bear market had a 50% correction for 3 years.
How about that?!
作者：theoretical 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [转帖]授人以渔-TA(1) -- theoretical - (3668 Byte) 2008-10-08 周三, 13:28 (2343 reads) - 很有兴趣！谢谢！ -- 夏日 - (0 Byte) 2008-10-08 周三, 21:19 (301 reads)
- 顶 -- 烈佛 - (0 Byte) 2008-10-08 周三, 14:03 (264 reads)
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