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 前几天讲过这事，国债的保险价问题。周末的花街报说， |
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ceo/cfo
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
By LIAM DENNING
Imagine you find a great deal on fire insurance for a 10-story building. The catch is that the underwriter's offices, and all of its assets, are on the top floor of the same building. Chances are, if it goes down, so does the underwriter.
The same catch could apply in a market where prices have soared 759% in a year: credit-default-swap protection on U.S. government debt. The annual cost of insuring $10 million of five-year Treasurys is about $66,000, up from $7,680 a year ago, according to Markit.
That implies rising anxiety about Uncle Sam's finances as he underwrites ever more of the financial system. But say you bought CDS protection on Treasurys and the government actually ends up in default. That would impair the world's ultimate "risk-free" asset, likely causing even more extreme financial chaos globally.
Given that, would the financial institution that sold you protection, even a foreign bank, actually be able to pay out? Put another way, Uncle Sam's profligacy has created demand for insurance on its debt. But what is the reason for all of that spending? A need for huge bailouts to save the very institutions that write CDS contracts.
So why is there a market at all? A recent study found high correlations between CDS prices for different sovereigns, as well as with U.S. high-yield bonds and stocks. That suggests CDS on Treasurys are being used not just for U.S.-specific risk but as a leveraged bet on financial turmoil.
Given the disconcerting circularity at the heart of the CDS market, true apocalypse aficionados would do better sticking with a more traditional fallback, like gold.
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 前几天讲过这事，国债的保险价问题。周末的花街报说， -- ceo/cfo - (1663 Byte) 2009-2-02 周一, 12:38 (1183 reads)
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