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 不可思议：神祕手提箱 装了1340亿美国公债闯关 |
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china_firefly
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作者：china_firefly 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
不可思议：神祕手提箱 装了1340亿美国公债闯关
本文网址：https://news.backchina.com/2009/6/18/45408.html
上周，两位日本人提着一只装有1340亿美元(约4.4兆新台币)美国公债的手提箱，准备从义大利闯关进入瑞士，但在边境遭到义大利警方扣押。这个桉件的细节目前仍未见光，但各种阴谋论已经传遍全球。
有人揣测，两位走私者可能是北韩领袖金正日的代表，负责为他在瑞士囤积现金；有人说这些钱是要为恐怖分子购买核子弹头。也有人说，日本正悄悄地抛售美元。当然，债券的真实性已引起强烈的怀疑。
然而，这些债券的合法性所代表的含意，可能远远超出投资人的想像。最低程度来说，这意味美国可能丧失对庞大资金的掌控权，并直接危及美元的地位。
因为，美国未来几年发行的数兆美元公债，需要众多的买主支撑，如果投资人对美元失去信心，后果自然不堪设想。
说来不可思议，这两个傢伙携带的债券金额相当于纽西兰的国内生产毛额（GDP），足够办三次的北京奥运。如果国家是可以买卖的话，这笔钱可以买下斯洛伐克与捷克后，剩馀的钱还可再拿来买蒙古与柬埔寨。相形之下，诈骗500多亿美元的马多夫根本不算什麽。
他们在手提箱夹层下藏着249张面额5亿美元的的美国公债凭证，外加10张面额各10亿美元的「甘迺迪债券」，单是这一手提箱的债券，就足够让他们成为美国的第四大债权人，甚至比巴西持有的美国债券还多。
一只手提箱就可以买下许多国家的故事，足以让想像力有如天马行空的小说家自惭形秽，但或许是情节几近荒诞，这个消息竟然没有在市场引起太大的涟漪。
这些债券的真实性引起很多人质疑，但假设是真的，第一个感到难堪的一定是日本财务大臣与谢野馨，因为他最近才信誓旦旦地保证，对美元有「绝对不会动摇」的信心。而且，他对日本持有的6860亿美元公债的流向，就有得解释了。
此外，义大利政府可能也会期待这些债券是货真价实，因为根据法律规定，政府可对走私者课以相当于走私金额四成的重罚。对于面临严重财政赤字的政府而言，这不啻是天降横财。
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https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a62_boqkurbI
Suitcase With $134 Billion Puts Dollar on Edge: William Pesek
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Commentary by William Pesek
June 17 (Bloomberg) -- It’s a plot better suited for a John Le Carre novel.
Two Japanese men are detained in Italy after allegedly attempting to take $134 billion worth of U.S. bonds over the border into Switzerland. Details are maddeningly sketchy, so naturally the global rumor mill is kicking into high gear.
Are these would-be smugglers agents of Kim Jong Il stashing North Korea’s cash in a Swiss vault? Bagmen for Nigerian Internet scammers? Was the money meant for terrorists looking to buy nuclear warheads? Is Japan dumping its dollars secretly? Are the bonds real or counterfeit?
The implications of the securities being legitimate would be bigger than investors may realize. At a minimum, it would suggest that the U.S. risks losing control over its monetary supply on a massive scale.
The trillions of dollars of debt the U.S. will issue in the next couple of years needs buyers. Attracting them will require making sure that existing ones aren’t losing faith in the U.S.’s ability to control the dollar.
The dollar is, for better or worse, the core of our world economy and it’s best to keep it stable. News that’s more fitting for international spy novels than the financial pages won’t help that effort. It is incumbent upon the U.S. Treasury to get to the bottom of this tale and keep markets informed.
GDP Carriers
Think about it: These two guys were carrying the gross domestic product of New Zealand or enough for three Beijing Olympics. If economies were for sale, the men could buy Slovakia and Croatia and have plenty left over for Mongolia or Cambodia. Yes, they could have built vacation homes amidst Genghis Khan’s Gobi Desert or the famed Temples of Angkor. Bernard Madoff who?
These men carrying bonds concealed in the bottom of their luggage also would be the fourth-largest U.S. creditors. It makes you wonder if some of the time Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner spends keeping the Chinese and Japanese invested in dollars should be devoted to well-financed men crossing the Italian-Swiss border.
This tale has gotten little attention in markets, perhaps because of the absurdity of our times. The last year has been a decidedly disorienting one for capitalists who once knew up from down, red from black and risk from reward. It almost fits with the surreal nature of today that a couple of travelers have more U.S. debt than Brazil in a suitcase and, well, that’s life.
Clancy Bestseller
You can almost picture Tom Clancy sitting in his study thinking: “Damn! Why didn’t I think of this yarn and novelize it years ago?” He could have sprinkled in a Chinese angle, a pinch of Russian intrigue, a dose of Pyongyang and a bit of Taiwan-Strait tension into the mix. Presto, a sure bestseller.
Daniel Craig may be thinking this is a great story on which to base the next James Bond flick. Perhaps Don Johnson could buy the rights to this tale. In 2002, the “Miami Vice” star was stopped by German customs officers as he was traveling in a car carrying credit notes and other securities worth as much as $8 billion. Now he could claim it was all, uh, research.
When I first heard of the $134 billion story, I was tempted to glance at my calendar to make sure it didn’t read April 1.
Let’s assume for a moment that these U.S. bonds are real. That would make a mockery of Japanese Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano’s “absolutely unshakable” confidence in the credibility of the U.S. dollar. Yosano would have some explaining to do about Japan’s $686 billion of U.S. debt if more of these suitcase capers come to light.
‘Kennedy Bonds’
Counterfeit $100 bills are one thing; two guys with undeclared bonds including 249 certificates worth $500 million and 10 “Kennedy bonds” of $1 billion each is quite another.
The bust could be a boon for Italy. If the securities are found to be genuine, the smugglers could be fined 40 percent of the total value for attempting to take them out of the country. Not a bad payday for a government grappling with a widening budget deficit and rebuilding the town of L’Aquila, which was destroyed by an earthquake in April.
It would be terrible news for the White House. Other than the U.S., China or Japan, no other nation could theoretically move those amounts. In the absence of clear explanations coming from the Treasury, conspiracy theories are filling the void.
On his blog, the Market Ticker, Karl Denninger wonders if the Treasury “has been surreptitiously issuing bonds to, say, Japan, as a means of financing deficits that someone didn’t want reported over the last, oh, say 10 or 20 years.” Adds Denninger: “Let’s hope we get those answers, and this isn’t one of those ‘funny things’ that just disappears into the night.”
This is still a story with far more questions than answers. It’s odd, though, that it’s not garnering more media attention. Interest is likely to grow. The last thing Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke need right now is tens of billions more of U.S. bonds -- or even high-quality fake ones -- suddenly popping up around the globe.
(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at [email protected]
作者：china_firefly 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 不可思议：神祕手提箱 装了1340亿美国公债闯关 -- china_firefly - (6400 Byte) 2009-6-18 周四, 13:32 (2432 reads)
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