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 Just some charts. No need to be too bearish, |
theoretical
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theoretical
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Nothing new. Short term market was not oversold yet.
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theoretical
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熊声一地，今天平空仓，加多仓。
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| theoretical 写道: | | Nothing new. Short term market was not oversold yet. |
Buy solid good stocks, not AAPL type.
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theoretical
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No need to panic, not yet. Tomorrow is another
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作者：theoretical 在 青蛙园地 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
| theoretical 写道: | | 熊声一地，今天平空仓，加多仓。 |
day. I covered all shorts today. Add some stocks I think they have long term value. Now let's explain why did I cover. This kind of fall 10% in two hours can not last, in another word, now is not 2008's LEH. The panic caused program trading to sell without any fundermental reason. The hard fall of today may cause shoot up tomorrow. Furthermore, how low can it go in next few days? Enough is enough, so I took profit and left the building. In terms of future, well, now people know the risk of stock market AGAIN. They have been on bull ride for so long, so the rally ( if any) will be a good chance for them to leave the market. In another word, game changed. I have said the mid term is down since early April. If you all paid attention to the market, you should notice a lot of big cap stocks already dropped a while ago, like MSFT, QCOM, AMZN, GS etc. Why big cap is improtant? Because most of them are held by big institutions. And those institutions are 70% of market trading. On the other side, index was riding high with IWM (small caps), and when market went up, it went with big volumn. These are all bad signs. Without any complicated TA indicator, traders should know it time to leave.
Still, no need to panic now. Game plan I have said many times, when market went up, sell. Will today's low will be the low of this yr? NO. Will 1220 be the high of this Yr? I guess not. It's pig's yr.
Always remember, when everyone this the only direction is up, you sell. When everyone think the only way is down, you buy. Anthing in between, you wait. 80% time, you shall wai and hold your positions, long or short.
I am not really qualified to be Banzhu here. Thus, I won't stay here long. I hope during my stay, I can share some of my thoughts with all of you and remind you, there is huge risk in stock market from time to time. As a trader, pay attention to details, discipline, confidence, calm, but most of all, try to survive.
作者：theoretical 在 青蛙园地 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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MVSspm
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理论还是很牛的
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| theoretical 写道: | | No need to panic, not yet. Tomorrow is another |
技术和感觉都不错
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emperorfan
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文章: 2008
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Please make sure you did not cover during the panic
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作者：emperorfan 在 青蛙园地 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
I DID sell some of my PUT
and CALL on Ultrashort,
but they send me notice to cancel the trades, because it's at 2:47
I can not FxxKING believe this SHIT!
Unless the fat finger can be identified, Asia and Europe will continue slide now.
--no, looks like Hengseng and straits stabilized upward.
I agree w/ THEO, cover some shorts,
and buy stuff like PG, DD, PFE, F ...
Bailout suppose to be temporary. The long term fix is to lower risk by raising capital standards and cut spending to live within your means.
If that means unemployment, FINE, you can volunteer for Peace Corp or
Africa. After 2008, a lot of jobs are gone permanent. There is no quick fix.
If Greece and Germany has no political will to resolve. FINE, default, like Russia in 98. Let the European banks FAIL, they should have failed even when NY FED wrongly bailed AIG.
Let there be NEW Euro, and everything will be fine.
Cramer said, there needs to be catalyst. Some implosion to turn denial into reality acceptance.
Then I will buy NEW Euro at par.
By the way, why JPY jump 4% around 3:40pm?
should USD be the next target after Euro?
作者：emperorfan 在 青蛙园地 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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theoretical
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I don't play with options so my order is fine
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作者：theoretical 在 青蛙园地 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
| emperorfan 写道: | | Please make sure you did not cover during the panic |
for now. My goal in this market is consistancy and I have a weak heart. Options require more skill on timing, I tried but could not meet my goal. I only play stock now. My way of playing gold is different with tiger too. I just keep buying gold, you know, solid stuff, because I think this fiat currency has big problem. At least, gold will be useful under some extrem situation.
I really don't think a fat finger caused today's problem. More or less, my take is weak Euro pushed money to gold and JPY. Gold market is nothing but JPY is a big carry trade poll. So, when large amount of in flow of cash to push JPY up, maybe a fund was blown off, which in turn to trigger market crash, then more cash rush to gold and JPY, that maybe the reason for JPY jump. Just my guess.
I did not expect this scale of crash, but the retreat of market is very clear. I wish at least a few do listen my call: "Wolf is coming." Maybe not, since I called this for almost a month now. 出来混的总是要还的，大家吃一堑长一智吧。I only bought a few bio tech stocks since that is my field.
Next short target, TLT.
作者：theoretical 在 青蛙园地 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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theoretical
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Well, well well, there was no fat finger today, right?
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So, yesterday's low was confirmed by today's down trend. It was not a fat finger at all. SPX on MA200. will it rebounce quickly? I doubt it. So, more or less, we will hang around MA200 for a while. Better stay on sideline.
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