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 [转帖]标普：中国公司债将超过美国 |
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jihadist
头衔: 海归上尉
声望: 学员
加入时间: 2009/07/11
文章: 202
海归分: 8727
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作者：jihadist 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
中国的债务问题现在三天两头上头条，但这个有点儿标题党。标普最近的一个研究报告预测：中国的非金融类公司债可能在未来两年超过美国。美国经济的主体是服务业，公司债以银行保险类金融债为主；而中国经济的主体是制造业，事实是中国制造业的规模早已超过美国，负债总量即便超过美国也属正常。
中国近几年社会总融资规模迅速增长，增长速度大幅超过GDP增速。问题的核心是投资产出率（investment productivity）下降，也就是现在生产出同样数量的GDP需要更多的投资。原因大致有这么四个：
1. 随着经济规模的不断扩大，资本效率逐渐下降；
2. 劳工成本的增加导致资本构成的提高，即所谓机器替代人工；
3. 产业升级，生产由资本轻型向资本密集型转移。
4. 股市多年低迷，公司通过股票融资几乎不可能，只有发债或找银行贷款。
China’s Corporate Debt Market Set to Challenge US
China is forecast to surpass the U.S. as the world's largest corporate debt market for non-financial companies in the next two years, according to a report from Standard & Poor's.
The rating agency expects the debt needs of companies in China to reach upwards of $18 trillion by the end of 2017, accounting for a third of the forecast $53 trillion in new debt and refinancing needs of global companies in the next five years. Debt includes bank loans and bonds and is drawn from public information collated by S&P.
"China is poised to overtake the U.S., and then the U.S. and euro zone combined," said Jayan Dhru, senior managing director at S&P.
based on a stronger rate of economic growth that propels debt issuance, China's non-financial corporations could owe $13.8 trillion by the end of 2014, eclipsing U.S. corporations' outstanding debt of $13.7 trillion. A slower expansion of debt based on the growth of the economy would see China pass the U.S. in 2015, said S&P.
Globally, companies are seen refinancing $35 trillion of existing debt that consists of bonds and bank loans, with a further $15 trillion to $19 trillion in new money being raised by the end of 2017.
The vast majority of debt from Chinese companies at the moment is in the form of bank loans, but such vast future funding needs are expected to boost its corporate bond market.
"There is a significant financing need in China," said Mr. Dhru, who added that the sheer size meant there was an opportunity for China's corporate debt market to grow.
One area of concern is the outlook for China's economy after three decades of strong growth.
"Among a sample of 32 economies, China has the highest risk of an economic correction because of low investment productivity," said S&P, adding, that the country's rapid credit expansion in 2009-10 had generated a high ratio of private sector debt to the overall economy.
S&P also estimates that about 80 of the top 100 corporates in China are state-owned enterprises, and that its study shows "borrowers' financial risk profiles are, on average, relatively weak".
Much of the global demand for debt funding by non-financial companies during the next five years is expected to come from the Asia-Pacific region. S&P has lowered its estimates for issuance by companies in Europe and the UK.
"Over the next five years, we estimate that European corporate debt could fall to 20 percent of the global total, from 24 percent at the end of 2012. Notably, we project that China's corporate debt will likely be at least 50 percent above that of Europe by the end of 2017, despite being at a similar level today."
作者：jihadist 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [转帖]标普：中国公司债将超过美国 -- jihadist - (3245 Byte) 2013-5-15 周三, 15:42 (1814 reads)
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