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 草庵演讲的英文版 |
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wow
头衔: 海归少校
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2004/02/27
文章: 269
海归分: 26527
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作者：wow 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
The Sino-American economy and countermeasures that the RMB appreciates
Ladies and Gentlemen;
I am very honored to be given the opportunity to be here with all of you and discuss the economic issues between China and the United States. Today, I will mainly be discussing the economic problems of China.
China’s economic issues have been analyzed and talked about for a while. Lately, the appreciation about RMB has been a very popular issue and will bring about many effects on the economy. Personally, I feel that the appreciation of the RMB will bring much danger to the American and the Chinese economy for the following reasons:
1. Firstly, the finance and banking systems of China are becoming more fragile. The internal deficit is enormous, and the Chinese economy will not be able to afford the influences that the RMB’s appreciation brings.
2. Secondly, the Sino-America conflict is a complementary relationship, and low priced Chinese goods imported into the United States can offer a less expensive living standard for the Americans and thus can invest more money into the stock market of United States, which will bring about an advance in the American economy. In fact, the United States holds less than 20% in the total percentage of manufactured goods within the economy. China’s imported goods to the United States wins over much of the imported goods of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, and therefore does not have much of an impact to the manufacturing industry of the United States.
3. China has become America’s second largest supplying country of imported goods, and if China’s economy depreciates and fall into an economic crisis, China will sell off their U.S. dollars or stop helping with America’s national deficit.
4. If Sino-America trade reduces, unemployment will go up as well. Presently, California and New York have nearly a million people engaged in Sino-America trade or involved in work that correlates with it. This is an enormous market for careers.
5. The world cannot bear the society that China has lead to and will not be able to bear the confusion that will occur within the whole world if China’s economy becomes an economic bust. It is unable to bear 1.3 billion people’s confusion and uproar. In fact, the future of China’s economy is not looking very bright, and is on the borderline of collapsing. We have the responsibility to help China, and supervise the Chinese Government to face this one question: What can be done to help China and what implements it will need to bring positive outcomes on it’s political economy and system.
A few years ago, I began to pay close attention to the finance and financial policies of China. Everybody should know that China relies on investments to help with it’s economic development, and does all of this as a “semi-closed” state. I call this type of economic development: “economic development that borrows“. This is not a normal state of economic of development and as time develops, China’s economic contradiction will be aggravated, resulting in ultimate downfall. We can already see this omen from some current situations and events of this present Asian continent.
1. China’s stock market has been on a down slope for a long time now, and has lost credibility from their investors in the capital market. Many investors have lost an enormous amount in their investments to a point where they didn’t even get a penny back into their pockets.
2. In September of this year 2003, Chinese national debt issues initially began to show more struggles. It has become the ninth nation to have their national deficit suspended. Although the nation has transferring their 10 year deficit into a short 3 year debt, they will still face a loss in the end.
3. As China investments increases, exports and increase from foreign countries, but domestic demands continue to drop at the same time. The later development of the economy will be weak and a huge portion of goods will devalue. Real Estate in China is rising almost to equal the price in of real estate in the United States.
4. It is apparent that there is no improvement the technology of the Chinese industry, and furthermore, there are no large-scale transnational enterprises. On the contrary, all the upper scale enterprises in China have shown low efficiency and this is just a waste of goods and resources.
5. The state-run banks continue to suffer the losses as the deficit continues to pile up. The social security mechanism is still not set up, and this will result in an under abundance of close to $15 billion RMB.
6. As the pressures of the society begin to build, faith will be lost, and incidents of violence will emerge into an endless stream.
All sorts of signs indicate that present China is in an unusual state of development. Although through China’s media and portrayal of itself as a country is that that China is a country of high-speed development, but we should know that this “high-speed” China is actually an extremely unstable state of development as I have mentioned before. It is still a semi-closed economy, and a country where the capital does not circulate under the state. Once the capital circulates freely, set up fair social mechanism, this society will change enormously.
For all the reasons I just explained, I respectfully disagree with the appreciation of the Chinese RMB. But I do agree that Mr. President Bush and the U.S. government wants to give China some pressure in order to help guide China into changing their economic and political systems. Give their people more freedom, let there be fairness, equality and freedom to the society of the Chinese people. (Please be advised that what I am referring to is the stability of China, not the stability of the Communist Party of China.) Both countries are extremely important to world. The American industry of manufacturing industry shifts to be an inexorable trend of economic development, and it is a fact that China has unending low-priced laborers. If the American enterprise does not carry on an industry shift, they will encounter the result of transferring their industry to the Japanese competitors of enterprise. The result may occur in that of the manufacturing industry in America and may change the American problem of unemployment in the manufacturing industry. In fact, China exports nearly 95% or more products to get U.S.A. to replace Japan today. The product costs are much lower than Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. Though the costs are so low, this does no pose any harm as to the American people. Instead, it will improve the lower income families by providing them with a lower living standard. But another fact that we have to see is that because of the low priced products from China, it helps American consumers to keep their original living standard while having an economic recovery. This is a good proposition towards the whole American society and towards their social stability and economic development. More people will be able to have more money to invest into the new industries. According to statistical data, Asian trade with the United States will result in California hiring more staff. A research paper from the University of California, Los Angeles shows that: Over the past five years, increase with the Sino-American trade in California has caused an increase in nearly 150,000 more job employment opportunities. For every 5 new jobs, there will be two with work related with international trade and marketing. I believe that through the development of time that this increase off job opportunities will continue to rise.
It is a fact that the Chinese RMB exchange rate liberalization is unavoidable, but I believe that within five years the Chinese Government will have to implement the free exchange rate by liberalizing the market.
We can look briefly at an example: Just this past July 1st of 2003, the people of Hong Kong carried on a demonstration spontaneously because of objecting to the notorious 23rd law. The Chinese Government has taken a series of economic measures in order to save Hong Kong’s economy since them. One of them allowing China’s common people to be able to travel into Hong Kong, and allow the common people in Mainland to bring along 50,000 RMB. This is a good call freedom the Chinese Government however I do also believe that this will cause the forming of free exchange of the Chinese RMB indefinitely.
All of us know that Hong Kong is a free trade port, and has always been well-known for it’s low tax and freedom. The Hong Kong Dollar issuing Agency has issued 135 billion dollars. But up now, Hong Kong has up to 70 billion RMB in their market and has already been free flowing publicly. This is a very bad situation for the Hong Kong dollars. In the future, residents from inland China will be able to travel to Hong Kong when they wish and take along with them up to 100 billion RMB in one year. This huge sum of money must somehow flow bad to China whether ther Chinese officials want it to but it will need to be taken bad at an exchange rate that the Hong Kong tariff will choose to revise in any case upon their calculations. A tariff is bad for China in Hong Kong and the Hong Kong and U.S. dollar will have the same value and will rise or depreciate, as the U.S. dollar will simultaneously. The RMB and Hong Kong dollar will result in having a bad tax rate. When this happens, Hong Kong will form a free exchange rate on the free market, and the Chinese officials also can have a steady official exchange rate. This phenomenon will be like that of the similar incident that happened 20 years ago with the two-tiered price system that China implemented. Free economy and planned economy will make the same articles produce two different prices and rates. When the official RMB exchange rate of China is higher than the exchange rate of the free market of Hong Kong, a large amount of arbitrage that the Hong Kong people and inland common people will be able to utilize their new rounded freedom. The official RMB exchange rate will be lower than the exchange rate of the Hong Kong free market and the Chinese people will be able to make a profit as well. Overseas funding can also be able to enter Hong Kong and carry on arbitrage and take action at the same time. All these are legal behaviors and I believe in the world being able to have any country tolerate such a situation for a time period of time. The businessmen will be able to see a way and find an aroused interest in making money in order to enter into the trading world. Even in a country with a high income like the United States, I believe I have succeeded in persuading over one million people to go and earn each dollar safely and honestly. Please don’t forget that every scholar and official might not have annual pays today. (Please excuse me and allow me to ask everyone a very personal question: If your Annual pay exceeds 500,000 dollars please raise your hands. If you want to make over $500,000/year, please give me the honor of speaking with you after the meeting and I will only charge everyone only $10,000 to tell you my concepts of how to make money. Perhaps the Chinese Government will create employment opportunities for one million people for us.) After a long period of time, The Chinese government will not have any actions for their huge loss of assets, and the free exchange rate market of Hong Kong will inevitably replace the fixed exchange rate of the Chinese Government.
Finally, I would like to respectfully deliver several suggestions to the Chinese officers and scholars present today and I ask that you please pass on my suggestions to the supreme leaders of the Communist Party of China:
1. First, set up a security mechanism as soon as possible and turn all the social security fund shares out of the state-run ways. Then progressively sell them according to the market value.
2. Secondly, Accelerate the process of the system reform, and open supervision by accepting the public opinion. Perfect the system and the law.
3. Thirdly, Open the private bank and foster community’s bank with a higher speed. Sell the privatized state-run bank progressively.
4. Next, Implement the gentle inflation measure within the next five years and implement the inflation with 20% of the proportions of every year. Dispel the bad accounts and lighten the financial burden as soon as possible.
5. And Lastly, Set up financial trade and derive trade as soon as possible. Please allow me to elaborate on this topic a little more. As we all know, a one-way profit stock market lacks empty mechanism and it is run so that all the stockowners unite to make profit for one side only. If the stock market crashes this poses a huge loss to the investors as well as the stockowners. In fact, according to studies the history of China has become the oldest speculative market in the whole world and it’s ranges fluctuate higher than the United States, Japan, Europe, etc…This may result in a disaster with both sides collapsing, and causing the whole stock market to crash terribly and breakout into a terrible war between the two rivals. The stock market will seek a new way of profit immediately and this new way will shape rival claims as equals and two evenly matched strengths, the Stock market of China. But in the future, two gangs of forces can restrict the stock market as well and can prevent the result of s single profit-making stock market. Whether it can make it more not, the Chinese financial market will have a better development to their economy.
To the United States Officials, I would respectfully also like to offer a few suggestions:
1. First, to help force the Chinese Government not to be implemented fundamentally and have a freer, democratic system.
2. Secondly, On the basis of helping China to perfect the finance and financial system, impel China to implement the free exchange rate system, and not only by implementing the appreciation of the RMB.
3. Next, Establish cooperation and a closer economy with the Chinese Government, expand and open more markets in China, Especially finance and service trade markets, and this will help protect American investors.
4. Lastly, Shift finer protective policy of government to the industry that is invested in abroad, In order give investors of China’s entrepreneurs to have a more fair and freedom and market.
Thank you for giving me the pleasure to deliver you my speech today, I thank you all for listening.
本文记录整理者为:ANNE JI小姐.ANNE小姐出生于美国,毕业于加州大学圣地亚哥分校,传媒专业.曾在中国北京光华管理学院进修一年.
作者：wow 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 草庵演讲的英文版 -- wow - (29446 Byte) 2003-11-19 周三, 06:22 (660 reads)
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