| 作者 |
 老瓦叔当时劝温妹别买mrk没错。It was rather risky. |
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ceo/cfo
[博客]
[个人文集]
头衔: 海归中将
声望: 院士
性别: 
加入时间: 2004/11/05
文章: 12941
海归分: 491638
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作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归茶馆 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Wall Street hates uncertainty. At that time the class action against Merck was estimated at least $30 billion, if not forcing Merck to belly up. Instead of surrender, Merck has chosen to fight more than 47,000 lawsuits, one by one! It had guts and it paid off. But who knows at the time? Now, to avoid 瓦叔's same "fate," I would never recommend to buy or not to buy any stocks. Now fast turning to stx, first of all, why are you interested in this stock instead of others? Ask this question first. Is there any better one after your researches, such as Western Digital? Seagate's main rival, other than SanDisk. Seagate has done almost everything right for several years after its takeover of Maxtor in 2005. It bought it cheap, only paying 50 cents for each dollar of Maxtor's sales revenue, in stx stocks! To offset such stock "dilution," Seagate mgt. has started a stock repurchase program with $2.5 billion, which still has $1 billion left to buy its own stock back, which will be about 20% of its current outstanding floating stocks. Its business is good; it has about 31% market share of the hard disk drive business even before its Maxtor takeover; it has well developed SSD and HHDD (so called hybrid hard disk drive) so it has diversified to other application with flash memory based devices. So the Street has estimated its earning per share in fiscal 08 will be over $2.25 to 2.30. However, to me the risk will be two folds: 1)its stock price is close to its 52-week high; it cannot afford any bad news, which will tank its price dramatically. 高处不胜寒 It has no downside cushion。This is micro.2)Macroly if the stock market in general is down, everything will be down, the only difference is the good stocks will be down relatively less and the bad ons down more. If the recession hits, the demands for Seagate products will be reduced drastically because most company spendings will be cut and the consumers will buy less computers and digital cameras, which means its ASPs will be down (Average Selling Prices) , so its normal 4-6 week inventory in its distribution channels will increase and become slow moving, so its profit margin will get hurt, so its p/e ratio will appear lot higher, so the stock price will be down to adjust its less earning, so it will be a chain reaction...
功课做完了，可以出去白相了吗？儿子小时每个周末要问的一个问题。 
作者：ceo/cfo 在 海归茶馆 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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2008-12-21 周日, 10:58 |
| Good morning 温妹，看在老乡的面上，友情体个醒，
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海归茶馆 |
2008-7-15 周二, 19:06 |
| 请瓦叔和泡老大继续点评金老中的人物啊
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生活风情 |
2008-6-04 周三, 13:39 |
| 呼叫蝎子姐姐56叔叔黑总简直不拉无痕老瓦众弯曲high人，求照片一张 --》
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海归茶馆 |
2007-12-02 周日, 11:05 |
| 同意老媒叔叔的话：有些上海人口气大，手气小！
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海归酒吧 |
2014-7-18 周五, 12:37 |
| [老沙射影]迷恋温哥华漂亮的外壳
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海归茶馆 |
2013-12-15 周日, 09:01 |
| 回答关于老瓦“贫穷、疾病、失败”的问题：
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生活风情 |
2012-8-31 周五, 11:20 |
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 老瓦叔当时劝温妹别买mrk没错。It was rather risky. -- ceo/cfo - (2378 Byte) 2007-11-11 周日, 23:22 (2061 reads) - 顶就一个字！ -- 明子鉅 - (0 Byte) 2007-11-14 周三, 13:36 (252 reads)
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- 看来是喜欢短平快啊 -- wiser56 - (9 Byte) 2007-11-12 周一, 02:25 (317 reads)
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