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 Jim Rogers's Remarks on China and Commodity Investing - 回 大甩 and 恍如隔世 |
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有道则见,无道则隐
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[个人文集]
游客
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge fund manager Jim Rogers
talks with Bloomberg's Brian Sullivan in New York about his
expectations of a ``hard landing for the Chinese financial
markets'' in 2005, his commodities recommendation of agriculture
products and the outlook for oil prices. In 1970, Rogers co-
founded the Quantum Hedge Fund with George Soros.
(This is not a legal transcript. Bloomberg LP cannot
guarantee its accuracy.)
SULLIVAN: Jim, you said it in your book, you've said it
before, commodity investing can be very simple. Supply demand
imbalances, you find them, you can make money. So much demand
coming from Asia, China, concern about a slowdown in the Asian
economy. Do you see any of the fundamental supply demand
imbalances that maybe have existed the last two years changing at
all or easing a bit?
ROGERS: Well, I expect a hard landing in the Chinese
financial markets in 2005, so yes. If it happens, and it may not
happen, the Chinese government says I'm dead wrong, by the way.
But if it happens, it's going to affect demand for everything,
stocks in America, bonds in America, and commodities all over the
world. So yes.
SULLIVAN: What does that mean when you say hard landing?
Because our viewers at home may be thinking, well does that mean
that we're going to see no more imports of steel, no more imports
of timber, and no more imports of any commodities into China? Or
is it just going to slow down ...
ROGERS: It's going to slow down, you're probably going to
see some real estate investors in China go bankrupt, you're
probably going to see a lot of Wall Street - not closely - but
financial types in China go bankrupt in 2005, that's going to
scare everybody, they're going to cut back on the imports, it's
not the end of the world, it's a buying opportunity. Well your
show with this, turmoil in China, you pick up the phone and you by
all the China you can, and you buy all the commodities you can,
because it's a buying opportunity - if it happens.
SULLIVAN: How long though? I mean - well say they're the
hardest and the hard landing, and their economy slows down twice
as much as people think. How long will the negative impact you
think be on commodity markets?
ROGERS: Well normally you buy when that happens, you buy in
the middle of the panic, it may take a year or two for it to come
out of that, but you will start - you will see it going up slowly
from that moment - from the - from the minute of the panic. It
will probably take a year or two to sort out in China, but
remember they had the Olympics in 2008, and they want to showcase
themselves to the world. So by 2007, I promise you things are
going to be a whole lot better in China. You may have to wait a
little while, but if you buy in the panic, you're going to make a
fortune.
SULLIVAN: Somebody said on my show, I don't want to take
credit for it, they're much smarter than I am, and that is the
western economies have the invisible hand, China has the iron
fist. Is that a good and a bad thing for investors? Because yes,
they may now know how to handle financial markets, but at the same
time with the Olympics coming, if they want to make the economy
good, they could probably do it.
ROGERS: They can tap it by. Let me say, they call
themselves communists, but they are among the best capitalists in
the world right now. In fact their people will tell you they are
the best capitalists in the world. Now they're not experienced
capitalists like you and I, they haven't seen panics, and they
haven't seen depressions and things in most of their lifetimes.
So there's some - there's some alternates going on. Don't worry
about it.
SULLIVAN: When I look at things like shipping rates, fuel
tankers, fly bulk, I see them going down right now.
ROGERS: Absolutely.
SULLIVAN: Why ...
ROGERS: Well ...
SULLIVAN: ... would I buy commodities when they're going
down?
ROGERS: Absolutely. I just got through telling you, it's
going to be a hard landing - perhaps going to be a hard landing in
China, we need a consolidation in the commodities market. Look at
what happened in commodities in the last six years, it's been the
hottest thing in the whole world.
SULLIVAN: Sorry to interrupt. But let me - let me tell our
viewers about this chart, by the way. This is your index, you
have a commodity index that people can invest in, I mean it's a
fund, and you got it broken down, most of it's what, 35 percent
oil still?
ROGERS: Right.
SULLIVAN: And you got seven percent corn and soybeans, et
cetera. You have outperformed stocks and bonds, which are the
orange and yellow. But this tells me, God, that's a heck of a lot
- I get nervous when I see stuff like this, Jim.
ROGERS: So do I, I hope it consolidate this year, this
quarter, this first half of the year. I'm not smart enough to
know, Brian, I'm a terrible market timer. But look, if you'd
bought this consolidation, you would have made a huge fortune.
You buy the next consolidation, and I'd like for you to tell me
when it's going to come, because I don't know, I'm not a very good
trader. But I do know we're overdue for a consolidation.
SULLIVAN: When you look at your fund, because it is such an
amalgam (ph) I guess of all commodities, most of it again is oil,
but there's about 30 some commodities, and ...
ROGERS: Thirty-five commodities ...
SULLIVAN: ... 35 commodities ...
ROGERS: ... they all trade - 35 commodities, they all trade
on the international commodity exchanges, it's all over the world.
SULLIVAN: Can we break it out though individually? Can you
look at this and say maybe there's a consolidation for your fund
coming? But are there certain commodities right now that you
think have nice supply demand ...
ROGERS: By the way, we have three funds, we have three sub
funds, an agricultural fund, an energy fund, and a metal fund. I
would be buying agriculture right now, I'm bullish on cotton, I'm
bullish on sugar, I'm bullish on orange juice. Agriculture hasn't
participated in this, this has mainly been energy and metals. But
if you're looking at commodities, let metals consolidate, let
energy consolidate, but you get out there and buy some
agriculture, you'll make a fortune.
SULLIVAN: What are you buying?
ROGERS: I just got through telling you the things ...
SULLIVAN: Corn, soybeans ...
ROGERS: ... like cotton, sugar, orange juice, these are the
things, I'm not buying them today, but these are the things where
I have been and am buying positions, and where I expect to buy
more.
SULLIVAN: When we look ...
ROGERS: And by the way, soybeans too, I'm looking at
soybeans, I haven't decided yet.
SULLIVAN: Because, you know, everybody's got a brother-in-
law who lost their shirt in soybeans ...
ROGERS: That's exactly - and you know why he did? Because
he did it on five percent margin, he shouldn't have done it, he
could have bought soybeans the same way he bought IBM. When you
buy $10,000 worth of IBM, you put up $10,000, or maybe 5,000. Do
that with soybeans and you'll make a lot more money ...
SULLIVAN: Don't use the five percent leverage. Let's get
into that very quickly, because people at home say well I don't
even know how to trade commodities. Of course you got your bulk,
and that can explain a lot of the basics. The dangerous thing
about commodities is that leverage, you can make a lot of money,
you can lose a lot of money, you're going to need to up some of
these leverage requirements. If we start to see the average
investor get in these markets, I mean you need to protect people
from the - from themselves?
ROGERS: I'm not in favor of protecting somebody from
themselves, absolutely not. I mean we're all free spirits, and if
we're going to go broke, let us go broke. But it also gives us
the opportunity to make a fortune if we know what we're doing. I
do not advocate buying commodities on five percent margin, or 10
percent margin, unless you are really the great trader in the
world, which I am not, I'm terrible at it. But it is an
opportunity to make a fortune.
Now that's why the brother-in-law always goes broke though,
he dreams - he daydreams of getting rich in a month. Don't
daydream, do your homework ...
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 Jim Rogers's Remarks on China and Commodity Investing - 回 大甩 and 恍如隔世 -- 有道则见,无道则隐 - (8599 Byte) 2005-1-19 周三, 10:10 (1427 reads) - 是否我杞人忧天？ -- 不拉不拉 - (343 Byte) 2005-1-19 周三, 11:24 (525 reads)
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