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 [ZT]谢国忠:大宗商品泡沫破灭 08年油价跌破30美元 |
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[ZT]谢国忠:大宗商品泡沫破灭 08年油价跌破30美元 -- youhighness - (3569 Byte) 2007-1-25 周四, 03:52 (3272 reads) |
sapientaf
头衔: 海归上校
声望: 学员
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加入时间: 2006/08/20
文章: 821
来自: 弯曲，上海，班格罗尔，北京，新加坡
海归分: 83000
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作者：sapientaf 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
US just announced to increase its strategic oil reserve to 1.5 billion barrels by 2027. It means a increase of demand of 100,000 barrels a day. The timing of the announcement is very interesting, when oil is in fresh lows below $50/barrel. It is seen as an indication to signal a bottom of oil's recent drop, at least for now.
As long as Bush is in power and his connections in the Energy industry remain, it is unlikely US will allow a complete collapse of oil prices. US has successfully manipulated the oil market and prices very well. Many people, including myself, has predicted US will push the oil prices down for the mid term election. It did. Now it is the time to push it up a bit.
Barring a recession in US, China or India between now and 2008, it is very unlikely oil prices will drop to $30/barrel.
In my view, It will trade in a range of $45 to $65 through 2008.
作者：sapientaf 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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