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 金融危机中有杰出表现的中国民间经济学家 |
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金融危机中有杰出表现的中国民间经济学家 -- 危言 - (7040 Byte) 2008-10-13 周一, 05:57 (5373 reads) |
parisparis
头衔: 海归少将
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2004/09/04
文章: 1996
海归分: 276207
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作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Song's research is most solid, but he will be excluded from China's financial elites. Those elites do not care about China.
Liu has way too many factual mistakes and some of his crazy ideas are not implementable.
美国雷曼兄弟为什么倒闭了，雷曼兄弟的规模不及贝尔斯登1/10
---did he read the financial statements of Bear and Lehman? This kind of mistake is way too stupid.
As to the 56t number, it is already the historic number, most recent outstanding figure is 64t.
First, it is "nominal value", not actual market value. Huge difference here.
Second, this 64t number covers US and NON-US bonds of sovereigns, corporate bonds (both INVESTMENT GRADE AND NON-INVESTMENT GRADE ONES), municipal bonds and CDOs.
Song's 10% is the anticipated US Corporate Bond default rate for NON-investment corporate bonds ONLY. Therefore, one needs to pick the right number and truly understand the numbers.
The real problems associated with CDS market:
1. huge counterparty risk.
2. no central exchange, no central clearning house, no regulator, lots of backlogs. Destruction of many monoline insurance firms.
3. Many European banks (mainly UK ones, all big 5 except for HSBC) use CDS insurances to evade basel II capital requirements. They might have big capital insufficiency trouble when this market does not function.
4.It becomes a global casino for many hedge funds and will destroy those hedge funds soon.
I expect to see more professional articles here. But Mr. Doom Speech is on the right track. Good job!
作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 金融危机中有杰出表现的中国民间经济学家 -- 危言 - (7040 Byte) 2008-10-13 周一, 05:57 (5373 reads) - comment from CDS expert--too many factual mistakes -- parisparis - (1554 Byte) 2008-10-13 周一, 11:20 (582 reads)
- . -- 走过路过 - (0 Byte) 2008-10-13 周一, 08:08 (361 reads)
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