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 安氏大俗商业学：一道关于风险投资的面试题目的改良版 |
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安氏大俗商业学：一道关于风险投资的面试题目的改良版 -- 安普若 - (860 Byte) 2005-8-17 周三, 13:17 (7437 reads) |
Tom12
头衔: 海归少校
加入时间: 2005/08/16
文章: 33
来自: US
海归分: 11249
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作者：Tom12 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
I think this is another question about return and risk. Compared with last question, the difference is that the venture capital projects are correlated, instead of independent.
IMHO, when evaluate a new venture project, we should not only calculate the risk and return of the project by itself, we also need to approximate the marginal return and marginal risk of the project to the whole portfolio. The impact to portfolio return is additive, which is simple. The potential to portfolio risk is no-linear, and depending on correlation of the new project to the existing portfolio, the marginal risk could be range from the difference to the sum of the two. Therefore I think the selection criteria should be a measure somewhat like marginal return/marginal risk.
OK, back to questions:
Assumption 1: Not necessarily. When the industry average success rate is 10%, the average return of successful project seems to require somewhat higher than 1000% in order to break even, considering high management fee, liquidity premium, etc. But that is the risk and return requirement of the whole portfolio, not individual project. For a standalone project, without any diversification benefit, the hurdle should be somewhat higher. So we can’t decide yet without further analysis of the marginal risk & return to the portfolio.
Assumption 2: Wrong. For example, a portfolio of 15 highly correlated projects could be much riskier than a portfolio of 5 projects that have small or negative correlations.
Assumption 3: Wrong. Project that brings substantial diversification benefit to the portfolio should have a lower return hurdle. Again, decision should be based on both marginal return and marginal risk.
作者：Tom12 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 安氏大俗商业学：一道关于风险投资的面试题目的改良版 -- 安普若 - (860 Byte) 2005-8-17 周三, 13:17 (7437 reads) - Let me take a stab, from a portfolio management perspective -- Tom12 - (1736 Byte) 2005-8-18 周四, 23:54 (1131 reads)
- 都不正确 -- 醉眼看世界 - (0 Byte) 2005-8-17 周三, 23:28 (377 reads)
- 我也试试...... -- 等会 - (317 Byte) 2005-8-17 周三, 16:37 (644 reads)
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