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 为什么我感觉黄金还没有跌完 |
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为什么我感觉黄金还没有跌完 -- CQ_xiaolang - (266 Byte) 2006-6-16 周五, 18:11 (2154 reads) |
金银岛
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作者：金银岛 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
https://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye061406.html
CHARTWORKS - JUN 12, 2006
Precious Metals
Technical observations of [email protected]
Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
written Jun 12, 2006
posted Jun 14, 2006
Gold and silver are now into the time window that satisfies a nominal correction from the May highs. An assessment of the technicals suggests that support should be found at $570 in gold and 123 (more importantly 114) in the XAU. Silver could bottom as early as June 13th.
The Big Picture
As long as gold holds above $460 the major bull market is considered to be in motion. This allows for a 50% correction ($493) of the complete rally from $255, a test of the support line (on a deflated basis) and a test of the 50-month moving average. This permits a cleanout similar to the equity's market correction of 1987. Such a 'financial panic' would not alter the long term picture of an extended bull market into the next decade.
click on chart to enlarge
Gold vs Commodities
Gold became overbought relative to the CRB basket of commodities as of May and is now down 18% in the past four weeks. This matches a similar break in July 1980 following a top in the Gold/CRB at 2.35. A 23% correction occurred twice in 1983 from high Gold/CRB ratios. In today's environment such a percentage decline would produce a low of $562.
click on chart to enlarge
The 50% Rule
Gold has an uncanny tendency to make 50% corrective pullbacks while in bull markets. The key is from which starting point to measure the correction. The use of an RSI(14) on weekly charts can be used to establish the last time the price was into a neutral or oversold condition. Readings below 45 have been successful for this exercise. On that basis we can use the move from $410 of one year ago to this year's high and establish an optimum target of $571. In some instances the price will bounce marginally for a week, top out below the midpoint of the preceding bounce and then take out the low by 1% before making a sustainable rally. This type of 'spring' or 'isolated low' is quite common in gold. Therefore a bounce off the initial low (assumed to be around $571) should allow for a close into the mid $560's as part of the basing process.
On the upside, the initial rally into the summer should retrace 40% to 60% of the decline from $730. Assuming that prices reverse from around $571, the initial upside resistance should be in the range of $635 to $665.
Looking down the road. . . following a recovery from this selloff it is imperative that these lows hold over the coming months otherwise we could be in for a correction of the complete advance from 2001. This would provide support at $493.
Previous examples
1972 to 1975
1977 to 1980
1986 to 1990
Silver
Sequential Buy Setups are common at the end of corrective phases in the bull market of silver. If prices close below $11.84 through Tuesday then we will have had nine consecutive days with closes below the low of four days earlier and a 'setup' will be in place.
Seasonally, this market comes out of the weak period by the end of June and has a tendency to do well through September.
Following significant tops in the past three decades the silver market has managed to produce an oversold reading of -200 in the CCI(20) at the end of most corrections. A subsequent upside reversal through -100 confirms that the bottom is in place. Risk can then be controlled 2% below the corresponding low. (The index is currently at -155)
Since April 19th three key supports were anticipated to be the 34-day, 100-day and 89-week moving averages. Thursday and Friday's action is into support and if prices can reverse to close above $11.40 this week then the upside target becomes $13.60.
XAU
Most major corrective lows in the XAU occur around the Fibonacci retracement point of 61.8%. On this basis, the targeted support is 114. The current low has been at 123, a 50% correction of the past twelve month's rally.
Previous examples
Technical comments on individual stocks
-Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors
email [email protected]
website: www.institutionaladvisors.com
CHARTWORKS - JUN 12, 2006
The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any securities or options or futures contracts. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
Moreover, from time to time, members of the Institutional Advisors team may be long or short positions discussed in our publications.
321gold Inc
作者：金银岛 在 谈股论金 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由金银岛于2006-7-03 周一, 15:51修改，总共修改了1次
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 为什么我感觉黄金还没有跌完  -- CQ_xiaolang - (266 Byte) 2006-6-16 周五, 18:11 (2154 reads) - [转帖]The 50% Rule -- 金银岛 - (5912 Byte) 2006-6-16 周五, 19:25 (1205 reads)
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